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GLOBAL WARMING TRUE OR LIE ?

"On the subject of electricity and earth, here is a recent Eos article (publication of AGU) that could possibly be a predictor of earthquakes? " After receiving this e mail, I received some other very important news concerning GLOBAL WARMING...

News 13th July from WeatherAction the Long Range Forecasters
Piers Corbyn

“The Global warmers have played their last card. Professor Lockwood’s attack on solar activity as a driver of Climate is a two-legged stool”

Piers Corbyn astrophysicist, speaking on BBC Radio 5 and BBC TV News24 TV on 11 July, attacked Prof Mike Lockwood for his ridiculous claims of evidence that solar activity did not drive climate change and described Lockwood’s recent paper as “old news re-presented in a profoundly misleading manner”.

On Radio 5 he slammed Prof Lockwood and other protagonists of man-made Global warming for describing light variations from the sun as ‘solar activity’ when the correct understanding of the term is the Sun’s particle and magnetic effects. “This changing of the meaning of words is typical of state-sponsored faith systems and Professor Lockwood should be ashamed of himself” he said, as Professor Lockwood tried to shout over him.

Piers pointed out that the solar particle activity based forecasting system he uses had for example correctly predicted (and also announced at the Institute of Physics on 7th June) the period of intense heavy rain and flooding 24th-26th June and he taunted Prof Lockwood with the question “What did you forecast, Professor?”

On BBC TV News 24 Piers explained in an interview with Tim Wilcox: “To understand the effect of solar activity on the Earth you must consider how solar charged particles get to the Earth and that is governed by the magnetic cycle of the sun which is 22 years long. This Solar activity magnetic link is why World temperatures have a main cycle of 22years and no CO2 based theory can explain that. Geomagnetic activity which is the measure of solar particles hitting the Earth’s magnetic field has been generally rising from 1910 to around 1990 or 2000 and rising temperatures over this period correlate very well with this – much better than they do with carbon dioxide. Solar activity effect, measured and estimated in a proper way (not by light) and geomagnetic activity are now declining and this (assisted by modulations through magnetic connections) is causing the decline in world temperatures since 2002/3*. [*2002/3 was the peak if 2year moving averages are considered; in terms of single years 1998 was the peak]

He said that present CO2 changes are of no importance whatsoever because feedback effects mean changes in CO2 have no net driving influence on world temperatures and there is no evidence that they ever had over the last 100,000 years. On request from Tim Wilcox, he forecast that UK and World temperatures will continue to fall for the next few years even though CO2 may continue to rise”.

Nigel Calder who had appeared earlier on News24 also said that the reason for the present flatness or decline in world temperatures is the decrease in solar activity.

Later Piers said: “It is great that BBC Radio 5 and BBC TV News 24 carried our views, even briefly, but we are just tokens, the BBC is a Global warming hysteria brainwashing machine. It is totally unacceptable that their web site now carries floods of carefully prepared Global Warming pseudo-science yet not a peep or a link to the contributions from Nigel Calder or myself or anything critical*. It blandly claims that two scientists who would be critical of Prof Lockwood’s attacks on science - Drs Svensmark and Friis-Christensen – ‘could not be reached for comment’. Strange the BBC Environment Correspondent Richard Black didn’t say ‘but Nigel Calder and Piers Corbyn were and this is what they said (etc)’! (*site details later in this release).

“The BBC and certain newspapers - notably the mis-named Independent - are now the chief propagators of a state sponsored faith system based more on science fiction than science fact which like those under various totalitarian regimes changes the meaning of words in order to deceive the public. The ‘Global warmers’ replaced the term ‘global warming’ with ‘climate change’ because there isn’t global warming anymore and the phrase ‘climate change’ means they can claim any extreme weather event which happens naturally as evidence of their barmy theory. And now they rename things which are NOT properly Solar Activity as it could affect Earth as Solar Activity. (See also foot comments).

“This latest hysteria from the Global Warmers is alarming but it is their last card and to succeed depends on the construction of a two-legged stool.
“Their fraudulent production of the so-called hockey-stick of temperatures for the last 1,000 years failed.

“Their claim that CO2 is or has been the main controller of climate fails when past data is examined. They cannot deny the evidence that shows solar activity in the prpoer sense has been decisively controlling climate for hundreds of thousands, indeed millions, of years.

“They are left with an astounding attempt to suggest Physics or something has somehow decisively changed over this last 20 years or less – which is merely a fraction of a pixel blip in the known tapestry of time. They build a two-legged stool to do this:

(i) They claim that CO2 has never risen so fast as recently since this peak is higher than any in past data. This is absurd. Because CO2 is a gas it diffuses through centuries of layers in ice core data and all previous rapid rises and spikes are blurred out - just like this one will be in 1,000 years time. It is like looking through London on a foggy day and only seeing one tall building and declaring that therefore there is only one tall building in London.

(ii) This 'Lockwood study’ which shows that over the last twenty years something which is NOT solar activity in the normal effective sense cannot explain temperature changes - which could normally be explained by properly assessed Solar activity effects in the past. This convenient disposal of observed physics is intended to leave ‘only Man’s CO2’ as the possible cause of recent and/or future climate change despite the fact hat the CO2 driver theory explains nothing in the past and can predict nothing.

“The absurdity of the Lockwood paper becomes clear when you notice he talks about solar activity which under all normal definitions is about charged particles and magnetic fields but he does NOT talk about how these particles get to the Earth’s atmosphere. This is like having a theory that traffic jams in Birmingham are made worse by cars coming from London and testing it by watching changes in flow of all the cars leaving London without considering if they would actually reach Birmingham - by coming up the M1 or whatever.

“The ability of solar charged particles to reach and influence the Earth’s weather and climate depends on them actually getting here - far enough into the atmosphere to do something. Their effectiveness therefore depends on firstly how many reach the outer parts of the Earth’s magnetic filed and make shock waves in it. This is measured by Geomagnetic activity NOT primarily by counting sunspots or cosmic rays or radiation etc. Then this geomagnetic activity measure must be multiplied by a factor which is bigger or smaller when the Sun and Earth magnetic linkage is stronger or weaker.

“If things are averaged over periods longer than the magnetic cycle of the Sun then the linkage factor is smoothed out hence the excellent correlation observed over centuries between geomagnetic activity averaged over magnetic cycles of the Sun (or longer) and world temperatures averaged over the same periods. CO2 over the last century however does not track the ups and downs of the temperature which moves with geomagnetic activity smoothed over successive ‘22yr’ solar magnetic cycles.
“Attempts to test influences of solar activity on Earth in detail shorter than 22 years without considering the magnetic links prove nothing. This however is what Prof Lockwood does. Obviously since temperatures driven by solar activity follow a 22yr cycle and the measures of solar activity used by Prof Lockwood follow an 11year cycle they must move in opposite directions half the time. Professor Lockwood’s ‘finding’ of a period of ‘oppositely directed trends’ is just one such period. In fact Lockwood’s finding confirms the general hypothesis of the solar charged particle based theory! The theories he actually tests are something else - involving only 11yr cycles - and amount to ‘straw men’ to be knocked down. The cosmic ray theory is one of these. Although its originators did excellent experiemnts which showed that charged particles do have weather and climate effects extra solar cosmic rays as such have no significant weather or climate impact.

(i) He does not mention any of the many observed and reported weather phenomena which follow the 22year magnetic cycle of the sun or the fact of successful current weather forecasting using solar activity. He fails to even mention the changing direction of the Sun’s magnetic field which switches direction from one 11 year solar cycle to the next.

(ii) He defines Solar activity and potential solar activity influence - by radiation, neutron and cosmic ray measurements which are not affected by the connectivity of charged particles coming from the Sun to the Earth and he ‘tests’ theories which ignore changing magnetic links.

“He shows - under his definitions – that presumed solar activity influence declined between about 1987 and 1998 (or 2002/03) while temperatures were rising (he cannot fairly extend his argument beyond then because world temperatures have since declined). Now what was the magnetic link and related 22yr Earth temperature cycle doing in that time? One guess! Yes it was in the Earth WARMING rather than Earth relative cooling phase. The warming phase (matching it with previous cycles) was about 1990/91 to 2002/03 which pretty well fits Lockwood’s period of ‘temperature rises unexplained by solar activity’. Indeed the peak of observed world temperatures coincides with the standard peak of the solar magnetic driven temperature cycle.

“Of course there are other things going on such as more or less warming in some times than maybe expected but there are also other things going on not discussed in Lockwood’s paper such as global un-dimming (ie less soot in the atmosphere) in the 1990’s which has been used before by ‘Global warmers’ to explain some aspects of recent warming. Also the recent continuing rapid motion of the magnetic north pole towards the geographic north pole which is unprecedented for 1,000 years should be considered. Last time there was such motion (approx 950 AD to 1050 AD) was also a period of rapid warming in which Greenland was discovered by the Vikings and so named because it was relatively mild and green.

“It is a pity that Prof Lockwood’s well respected excellent work in the past should be undermined by this misleading paper. Integrity in science would be a good idea” Piers said.

FOOT COMMENTS

BRAINWASHING WEB PAGE: This bbc page

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6290228.stm is impossibly well prepared for a response to a same-day science press Release which normally never get a mention. It has no less than 29 propaganda links/animations – every one another brainwashing tune. I challenge the BBC to put in balancing links. Biased BBC (http://biased-bbc.blogspot.com/2007/07/according-to-bbc-views-online-third.html ) has further incisive comments.

STATE SPONSORED FAITH SYSTEMS: ***Piers elaborated his comments on Climate Change hysteria as a new sate sponsored faith system: “These systems of false beliefs whether this or an earlier one about the relationship between the Sun and Earth propagated by the Papal inquisition at the time of Galileo (and note the origin of the word propaganda comes from Papal ‘Propagation of the Faith’); or about ‘the Master Race’ propagated by Goebbels (rather than Gore-bels!) and Hitler; or about ‘The inheritance of acquired characteristics propagated under Stalin all have three things in common:

1. They set out to change the meaning of words in order to deceive. The ‘Global warmers’ replaced the term ‘global warming’ with ‘climate change’ because there isn’t global warming anymore and the phrase ‘climate change’ means they can claim any extreme weather event which happens naturally as evidence of their barmy theory. Using solar activity to mean NOT solar activity is Orwellian.

2. A tamed or coerced scientific community of scientific sheep who will come up with endless well-funded findings and try to suppress those who disagree as ‘climate change deniers’ who should be subject to ‘Nuremberg style courts’. The way the Royal Society colludes in this is shocking.

3. A self orchestrated hysterical media who use the new quasi religion status of ‘The scientists’ (Bishops in earlier times) to misguide and manipulate a genuine desire of most people to ‘pull together to save the Planet (or nation or whatever)’.

Copies of Piers Corbyn’s presentation material as made available at the Institute Of Physics on June 7th and also Prof Lockwood’s paper are available (or attached) request by email piers@weatheraction.com

Previous news for information...

'Live Earth Day' Global Warming Debate NEWS issued 7th July 2007 - AND Long Range serious warnings of more floods

Weather Action the Long Range Forecasters
Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR
Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946 Fax +44(0)20 7939 9901 E: piers@weatheraction.com

=> Independent scientists slam 'Live Earth and 'Global warming Hype' as a new phoney religion and call for everyone to have a carbon footprint as big as Al Gore's.
=> Long Range warning of serous risk of new floods in UK - nothing to do with 'Global Warming'
=> Scientists in 'Global warming religion camp' accused of distorting the facts.

Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of Weather Action long range forecasters, and who is independent of the 'Global warming gravy train or any lobby group', today slammed Live Earth and Global Warming hype as "a new, phoney godless religion based more on science fiction than science fact".

"There is no evidence that changes in CO2 ever have or ever will drive world temperatures or Climate change. Personally I want everyone to have as big a Carbon footprint as Al Gore and I support the rapid electrification of Africa which will need more burning of coal and oil. Carbon Dioxide is not a pollutant it is the basis of life on Earth and increasing it increases the bountiousness of life." he said. "It's a sorry sight to see pop stars jetting over Africa to 'save the planet' whilst their new religion necessitates the keeping of millions of African children in poverty".

"Scientists in the Global Warming camp - who generally are also part of the Global Warming gravy train - are now more than ever distorting the facts - or allowing others to do so - to suit their ends.

"The latest is Chris Rapley of the British Antarctic Survey, who today on BBC News24 suggested that CO2 levels were rising faster than ever for hundreds of thousands of years. Apart from being irrelevant there is no evidence for this claim because as Chris well knows CO2 is a gas and diffuses through centuries of ice layers when it is absorbed by surface snow and ice. The present rapid rise in CO2 will just be a mere flattened blip when viewed a few thousand years hence. Rapid risies in the past are all smudged away into little blips. It is like looking across London on a hazy day; you can only see one tall building and so declare that there are no other tall buildings in London. I made this point at the Institute Of Physics Seminar on Climate Change on June 7th before an audience of 150 people including Dr Chris Rapley who was on the same panel as myself*. Neither he nor anyone disputed this point. (*along with Prof Richard Lindzen of MIT and Alan Thorpe of Univ of Reading who were the two main speakers).

"Current claims or suggestions that the recent British floods were somehow caused by man's CO2 and 'Global Warming' are fraud. The Official Global Warmer's 'bible', the latest IPCC report, makes it clear that under their view of things extra rain can be caused by extra warming; therefore to get the extra rain we first need extra warming. Water vapour only stays in the atmosphere for on average a matter of weeks. There has been no extra warming over the last two months in Britain, the Atlantic or anywhere the rain bearing air came from, so the cause of those floods was not warming but something else. And we know what it was - it was the activity of the sun and related magnetic effects and those rain periods and floods were specifically predicted by Weather Action months ahead and indeed announced at the institute Of Physics on 7th June.

"The idea that somehow general Global Warming over years also leads to floods like this is also counter scientific fraud since for the last five years world temperatures have been flat or falling not rising. It is profoundly worrying that thescientists involved do not even follow the science they say they support" said Piers.

"Renewed solar activity is VERY likely to cause more serious floods during July and we have issued specific warnings of the highest risk dates - see below. There is a serious risk that in some places new rain and floods could be as serious as those already experienced in parts of England and Wales.

THE WEATHER ACTION JULY 2007 FORECAST INCLUDES LONG RANGE WARNINGS of heavy rain, thunderstorms, hail, SERIOUS RISK of renewed floods and enhanced risk of tornado developements in periods *:

July 3rd/4th- 6 th, 9th-11th, 16th-18th, 22nd-26th and 30th-1st August (90% confidence). These will be significantly more intense wet and thundery (espec 9th-11th and 22nd-26th) than standard computer models will expect even from 12hours ahead.

Commentators have noticed that for 30th June/1st July the rain was notably less than computer models expected from 24hours ahead - as Weather Action advised it would be (see below). The periods listed above pose greater risk.

All Weather Action's warnings in June - including explicit statements that rain, flood, thunder, hail and tornado risk in Weather Action's defined warning periods would be significantly greater than standard computer models would say - were confirmed as correct.

See notes below for Press information

Thank you Piers Corbyn

Previous Press Releases etc...
Weather Action The Long Range Forecasters
MORE FLOOD DEBATE NEWS issued 29th JUNE 2007
- Long Range warnings of More thunderfloods
Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946

* This weekend (30th June & 1st July) 'won't be that bad'. Worse thunderfloods predicted 4-5th July & 9th-11th July

* Recent floods made worse by 'catastrophic environmental neglect'

* Storms & tornadoes 24th-26th June triggered by new actice sunspot regions which were predicted along with the floods and tornadoes by Piers Corbyn of Weather Action and announced at Institute Of Physics 7th June

* Claims that floods caused by 'Global warming' are'unjustifiable in any terms'.

THE WEATHER: Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of Weather Action long range forecasters today (29th June) issued expert advice that the rains this weekend "won't be as bad as has been suggested on TV because they are not being driven by the same 'synchronicity of solar forcing factors' which caused the thunderfloods and tornadoes of 24th-26th June (all of which which were correctly forecast to the day by Weather Action from weeks ahead)". He said: "Of course coming on top of what there has been any rain is bad news but he re-iterated for public use the severe weather warning originally only issued to Weather Action customers (see below) that more serious thunderflood and tornadoes risk periods are due around 4th-5th July and (probably more significantly) 9th-11th July. (90% likely
Weather Action staement Issued 11th June to Long Range customers etc
to re-inforce long range forecast 30day ahead detail issued end May :

SPECIFIC SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS AND WARNINGS OF ERRORS IN SHORT RANGE FORECAST JUNE 2007

12th-14th JUNE Rain hail and thunder. Becoming cooler in East.

Apart from regional detail (which is 'B' level) the important point about this period is 'EA' (extra activity) level 2 which means that wherever they occur rain and hail and thunderstorms can be locally very heavy and threaten transport and services through flash floods, hail distress and lightning strikes. Intensities will be greater than that suggested by TV forecasts even 12 hours ahead.

20-21st JUNE Wet and windy with thunder. Widespread rain

Apart from regional detail which is 'B' level the important point about this period is 'EA' (extra activity) level 3 which means that wherever they occur rain and (thunder) storms can be locally heavy (but probably less extreme than EA Top or level 2 time periods) and potentially threaten transport and services through winds, flash floods and lightning. Intensities will be greater than that suggested by TV forecasts 24 hours ahead but TV forecast underestimates of extremes in this time window will be probably less than for 12-14 and 22-26 June

24th-26th JUNE Dramatic thunderstorms.

This period is 'EA' TOP level which means that wherever they occur rain and hail and thunderstorms will be locally very heavy and threaten transport and services through flash floods and lightning strikes and hail damage and could lead - following on from the previous period - to difficulties in some personnel getting to work. Intensities will be significantly greater than that suggested by TV forecasts even 12 hours ahead.

Piers Corbyn, for Weather Action, 11 June 2007

General Information.

1. Weather Action forecasts are statistically (proven in independent peer-reviewed published papers and by weather gambling over years) much better than luck and best at rain/storm /wind extremes. There are errors of course and SWT23A is addressing those (which caused trouble in some pretty unique periods in the earlier part of this year).
Where there are periods of higher forecast uncertainty that is stated and so the forecasts should be applied with more caution. Despite uncertainties subscribers renew regularly.

2. In terms of Strategic implications of Forecasts a number of serious extremes and contrasts are coming in the next 6 months. These are part of such a tendency which we correctly forecast over the last year - eg rapid deep contrasts such as cold Spring 06, followed by hot June & July, cool wet August, astoundingly warm Sept 06 etc. Businesses need advance warning to consider and prepare.

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY FAILINGS: He said "The recent rainfall although very heavy - as predicted by our long range solar-based forecasting technique, was not actually unprecedented in many of the flooded areas; however the effects have been made much worse by catastrophic environmental policy failings in rain catchment areas. In the Severn area extra sheep farming and other upland activity has compacted soil - making it less able to hold water and increasing the rate of run-off.

In the Yorkshire area the digging of ditches (in vain attempts to change moorland) which have not been filled in has made run-off very rapid and also increased the amount of black silt in the Rivers Don and others. In both areas - indeed the whole of England - the EU/Govt subsidised destruction of hedgerows has also lessened the water holding capacity of land. In this context the allowing of building on flood plains which are now more likely to flood is very irresponsible.
"It is astounding that while making alarmist claims about weather extremes such as floods increasing due to supposed global warming - although the cause of any extra extremes is actually nothing to do with man's carbon dioxide - the Government allows and pursues policies which make certain that heavy rain will cause more and worse floods (and deaths) than otherwise would occur.

THE SCIENCE: The activity on the Sun, which was part of Weather Action's predicted synchronicity of solar events and Sun-Earth magnetic linkages which led to the forecasted thunderfloods and tornadoes of 24th-26th June, showed** a new active region and new sunspots in and building up to the period as predicted and announced by Piers Corbyn at the Institute Of Physics on 7th June (Seminar 'Climate Change - a robust or flawed process?' where Professor Richard Lindzen of Massachusetts Institute Of Technology and Piers Corbyn challenged Global Warming Orthodoxy). He also warned Wimbledon fans of impending rain (Handout of 7th June attached).

[**SEE: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DGD.txt For sudden increase in geomagnetic activity 21/22/23 June 2007

http--www.sec.noaa.gov-ftpdir-latest-DSD.txt For increase in 10.7 radio flux from 23rd June and a new active region and new sunspots 25thJune 2007].

Piers said "Although traditional meteorology is very good at seeing what is heading this way from a few days ahead it does not involve the external solar-based causative and enhancing (or reducing) factors which drive major weather events, so even when it sees something coming traditional meteorology often cannot know if it will get worse or fizzle out. Furthermore through our Solar Weather Technique we can tell 12 months ahead when major solar influences and subsequent weather patters and events will occur down to detail of a few days.

"Our long range forecast shows that in the current phase of the solar-magnetic cycle and other modulations Britain and Europe has been in and will continue to be in a period of 'tight sun-Earth linkages' which are causing more extremes and contrasts of weather events of various types which will continue in Britain and Europe for at least another 12 months. After that there will be less extremes and the general world cooling trend will probably continue (90% sure) at least until 2013 which is as far as we have looked.

CLAIMS OF GLOBAL WARMING CAUSE UNJUSTIFIED IN ANY TERMS:

Piers said "These floods were nothing to do with so-called man-made Global Warming. The protagonists of man-is-blame hysteria claim that any weather extreme is down to their theory. This approach amounts to a new religion dressed up as science. Very specifically the claims and innuendo voiced by the BBC Science correspondent, by Baroness Young and by Friends of The Earth that "(These rains and floods) are exactly what climate scientist are predicting (from Global Warming etc)" are unjustifiable in any terms.

The Summary for Policy Makers produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel On climate Change) ( http://www.ipcc.ch/WG1_SPM_17Apr07.pdf ) is apart from being more circumspect actually makes two relevant statements: [NB "I disagree with the IPCC conclusions but when they report observations their protagonists should at least make arguments consistent with the report they say they espouse"; said Mr Corbyn]

(i) Page 8 (top right) reads (concerning an observed likely late 20th century trend) "The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas, consistent with warming and observed increase of atmospheric water vapour." This means that more warmth makes more evaporation, which of course is true but there is no evidence that Man's CO2 has caused that warming; Furthermore it means that now it is no longer getting warmer these trends must stop. {notwithstanding solar factors}. On this it is important to note there has been no Global Warming since 1998** (or if you consider two year moving averages world temperatures have all been lower since a peak in 2002/03). (**Look carefully at IPCC Report - page 6 top right part of graph). In more detail of course any extra water has to be put there (under their theory) by extra warmth and since atmospheric water only stays around for a matter of weeks we need some significant extra warming in the weeks leading up to late June - which we have not had. Today's weather systems are not affected by what happened in 1998!

(ii) On page 9 bottom of left column: "There is insufficient evidence to determine whether trends exist in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the global ocean or in small-scale phenomena such as tornadoes, hail, lighting and dust storms..." (my emphasis). This means that the use by various media of dramatic images of tornadoes associated with the storms as evidence to back-up Global Warming Theory of extremes caused by man-made CO2 are to say the least highly questionable.

"Weather extremes can be better tackled through our long range weather forecasts than by failed quasi-religion posing as science", said Piers

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