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SEISMIC
PRECURSSORS PREDICTION RESEARCH [SPPR] By In view of the many intangibles existent in the Earthquake Prediction strategies the research in this field is still fraught with many pitfalls and imponderables appearing to be a Herculean research endeavor for seismologists and seismic engineers, who are actively seized with this problem with an elusive solution [unable to understand the precise processes of this aspect of the Super Natural Science]. Elaborate post-seismic event analysis exercise has been in vogue and rampant rather than pre-seismic analysis till recently. The outcome is “impossible to predict”, implying that the manifestations of the natural processes that are embedded in this system are most intricate, complex, complicated, compounded etc. The scientists should over come this mental blockade [science should moves on, otherwise their existence becomes questionable]. Thus obviously there exists a compelling reason and demand from intellectuals who are endowed with scientific excellence along with serious innovative acumen to carry on intellectual expedition, exploration, exploitation etc., in accomplishing this envisaged endeavor with holistic approach to unravel the mystery of seismic precursors predictive aspects. Astrologers are predicting since times immemorial with unknown success rate, but the scientific veracity is yet to be understood and summarily accepted. Recently, some scientists have started forecasting based on astronomical and related inputs, where accuracy yet to be tested. Vedic Seismic Predictive Astrology is being re-oriented. Utilizing the neo- and nano-technology regime, a synergetic multi-dimensional and ploy strategic model with multi-layered [composite] componental inputs is conceivable by adopting a cardinal multidisciplinary and convergent comprehensive integrated strategy [individual selective methods and/or a combination of methods] to predict [prediction by single method is not advisable] the precursors of imminent earthquakes with the help of space, air and ground systems and in monitoring pre-, syn- and post-seismic events, since some energy precursors are now identifiable, detectable and measurable [Li.J.Z et al, 2003; Ramanamurthy, M.V, 2001 [New Concept Proposed], 2005 a, 2005 b, & 2006; Shunji Murai and Harumi Araki 2003; van Genderen.J.L, 2004]. The principal concept envisaged in this scientific doctrine strategy is by a series of progressive and successive [sequential] approximations and then integration of multiple data sets, analysis, fusion and logical synthesis in decision making [a step by step procedure], yet much needs to be learnt and done.
The Principle Prediction Precursor Techniques: three-tier composite
system: 1. Long range: Astronomical [years before], Electrical resistivity variations in seismically active areas at judiciously selected intervals over long periods, Geomagnetic field change [6-8 months], GPS [3- 6 months], Gases from earth i.e. Radon, Helium by monitoring Geysers or otherwise [in advance in seismically known areas], Mapping of ground water levels [in advance in seismically known areas] 2. Medium range: Radar [1-2 months], Thermal IR [1 day to 2 months], Electrical resistivity variations in seismically alerted and active areas with continuous monitoring at closer intervals [3–4 months], Tidal Generation Forces Resonance [15 days to 2 months], Radon gas [2 months before], Mapping of ground water levels [2 months before] 3. Short range: Budgerigars’ [a kind of parrot] Jump frequency [7-13 days], Gravity [5– 6 days], Infrasound [1-9 days], Geoelectrical pulse [2-9 days], Crustral strain [1-3 days], and Geomagnetic field change affects telecommunications [50-100 minutes to few hours and months]. Initially, the precursor identification should be focused as a matter of fact on routine basis with the help of Long and Medium range predictive techniques, irrespective of whether the areas are seismic or aseismic, followed by short range techniques, if an indication is alerted in seismic or aseismic areas in narrowing down the imminent event and with a possibility to predict the location, magnitude and time with near surgical precision. None may follow this ideally, but this is a logical sequence. It is more likely that medium and short-range techniques could be in sequence while long range may or may not be an indicator. The short-range tools must be in place, be activated and ready for application as and when an indicator is obtained in the long and/or medium ranges in seismic or aseismic alerted regions for continuous surveillance and monitoring. Our need of the hour is “an automated on-line surveillance system” to predict Imminent Earthquakes Precursors Detection at least 3 days before”, which should possibly be accomplished as the ultimate goal. Constituting an “Earthquake Research Authority” [ERA] seems to be inevitable, to act as a nodal agency to coordinate with National Disaster Management Authority [NDMA]. Researchers as and when they notice imminence of an event, should report to the ERA only, who in tern, can deal with the situation as deemed fit confidentially, including conveying to the public at an appropriate time, so that panic situation is avoided. The NDMA should ensure that State & District Level wings of [S,D[DMA]s] be in place. Researchers, as and when they identify long-range indicators in an area, must confidentially inform the ERA, for passing on to N,S[DMA]s. When the medium range precursors are identified in the same area, then alert should be passed on to all the three DMAs through ERA to NDMA. Finally, when the event is identified in the short range in the same area, then ERA must coordinate with all the three levels of DMAs to not only be alerted, but also be in a position to convey to the populace the concern about the imminent event from time to time, with the latest updates so as to get prepared to face the situation without any panic. A proper communication channel is to be devised. Strict and highest level of confidentiality should be maintained by all concerned, till the event prediction is fit for public consumption. Following steps are suggested to foster SPPR-studies 1. It is evident
that there exists a compelling demand for the Academic, Professional
and Research Institutes to rise to the need of the hour in this Global
coordinated SPPR team effort and entire global scientific community
should contribute their due share of wisdom and timely inferences. Li.J.Z, Bai.Z.Q,
Chen.W.S, Xia.Y.Q, Liu.Y.R and Ren. Z.Q. [2003] Strong earthquakes can
be
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